Area Discussion Format
This is how AFD's are to be issued! This is an Actual AFD from July 30, 2008 by FIC FOLAND :)
.Regional Synopsis.../FIC FOLAND
The current weather map shows at 6Z Thursday, an TROF will be in two places. 1) to the W of the FA, 2) To the N/NW of the area. SFC LO pressure will be located off of the TX/OK brdr and out by the E Coast. Stationary frnt just N of the OH VLY. High pressure will then be located and centered out in the plains. As we move into 12Z Not seeing much change, except for the TROF from the W moving into the area. By 18Z the Stationary frnt over the OH VLY, will become a Cold front/ Occluded Front as it continues to move over Ohio. Then by 12Z Fri, High pressure will build up over the SRN extnent of TN.
Positioning of the fronts/ TROF will bring in patterns favorable for shra's/ tstms across the FA on Thursday and Friday. Shra's/Tstms will have the chance to become strong to severe on Thursday.
.Regional Discussion.../FIC FOLAND
.Short Term (Overnight- Friday)...
For the overnight, have included Mostly Cloudy and kept any lingering showers or Tstms in the zones. Model indications do show that there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but will mainly before 2 AM. Have noted that on the PFP. LO's should only reach around 69 to the low 70's. From a Warm day today, tstms/rain will help cool things off. Do not anticipate severe wx, and thus have not noted that on the PFP attm.
For Thursday, Showers and Thunderstorms will continue to dominate the region, the TROF with daytime heating and sufficent instability, will allow for Strong/Severe storms to be possible. NAM has CAPE's around the 1500 to at least 2000 J/Kg range. This will help promote the strong to severe threat. HI's will make it into the 90's. Conditions will be Mostly Cloudy. Any threat with the strong to severe storms would be damaging winds and perhaps small hail. Will issue an HWD reguarding strong storm threat.
Have toyed with the idea of introducing severe storms into PFP, but there are some uncertainties. With next update, svr storms may likely be introduced to the PFP. Will as stated issue an HWD to cover situation.
For Thursday Night, shra's/tstms will linger through the FA. But with loss of daytime heating, do not currently expect a Severe weather threat, and thus did not include a svr/strng potential in PFP. Otherwise LO's should hover in the LO/Mid 70s with some areas in the N reaching to around 69 or so.
For Friday, the continued chance of showers/tstms remains to be in the forecast. Continued with a SCTD chance of tstms. Right now am not currently expecting a chance of severe weather, but tstms over the last few days have had the potential to become strong. May have to monitor for inclusion of strong potential in next update. Conditions across the N will be PC and SRN zones should see MC skies. Have included this due to noting less cloud potential across the N.
.Long Term (Saturday through Monday)...
For Saturday through Monday, have included Mostly Sunny skies, as conditions will become drier across the area. However, for Saturday there are some questions reguarding to some lingering shra activity, however the potential seems to be way too light to include shra activity, thus included all dry. HI's will be in the mid to upr 90's and LO's in the upr 60's to mid 70's.
.ATL Advisories..
None
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